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It all begins at home

Fan Commentary, by Eric
August 5, 2007

It's been over 13 years since the Blackhawks last took the ice at the venerable Chicago Stadium. It was a different brand of hockey played in a different kind of rink back then, but the goal always remained the same: defend home ice. The NHL had the kind of divisional rivalries that people would mark their calendars in advance for. Divisional games became a good barometer for success and failure. There was anticipation and everyone knew a spirited matchup, regardless of the records, was on the horizon. There's an old sports adage: "teams that go .500 on the road but win consistently at home make for winning teams." There's a corollary to that adage: "good teams play well against the elite teams and beat up on the bad ones."

In the days of the Chicago Stadium the Hawks found ways to play a gritty, hard-nose brand of hockey, taking advantage of a smaller sized rink with fans that were close to the action. The fans at the old Stadium would scream till their vocal chords were raw and created so much noise bouncing off the ceiling and walls that it was as if the Hawks had an extra man on the ice. The opposing team knew that when they came to town they were in for the fight of their lives. It wasn't like it is today with uniform rinks and fans far enough away from the ice that the sound escapes into the rafters. Winning at home was almost imperative if a team wanted to sniff the postseason.

The Hawks defended home their home ice with the kind of tenacity that showed in the results. Between the 1958-59 season all the way till the last season of the Chicago Stadium (1993-1994), the Hawks had a winning record at home. In that stretch the Hawks became a perennial playoff team. Since moving across the street and into the UC for the strike shortened season of 1995, the Hawks have had only five seasons with a record better than .500 at home, and only three seasons with at least 20 victories at home. Is home ice the key for the Hawks returning to the playoffs and potentially a Stanley Cup in the near future? Are divisional games still the most important games on a schedule? Let's take an early peak at the upcoming schedule for 2007-08, as well as a glance back at the past few seasons, and see if there's a recipe for success that should ensure a Hawk playoff next season.

It's useful to look back on the last few years to see how much progress needs to be made to return this franchise to playoff glory. In the past five seasons the Hawks have failed to have a winning record at home in all but one season. In that season, 2001-02, the Hawks won 28 games at home and 41 overall, en route to a 96point season and a first round playoff appearance. In fact, in the last 10 years the Hawks have only won at least 20 games at home, twice (2001-02; 1998-99). More importantly, the Hawks have played sub .500 hockey within the Western Conference. Over the last five years, the Hawks are a cumulative 37 games below .500 in-conference, and 40 games below .500 overall. So the recipe for success should include winning at home as well as winning games in-conference.

In 2007-08, the Hawks will have one more home game than their division counterparts in the opening month of October, that one game is a must win. With a total of 22 home games in the first three months and nine of those against division opponents (10 against non-divisional, Western conference teams), it's imperative that the Hawks start hot and at worst break even. There are 37 total games between October to December, with 21 against teams that made the playoffs in 2006-07, and 12 of those at home. By the end of December, if the Hawks are in one of the top 10 spots in the Conference, then it's safe to assume that the playoffs are attainable.

The month of January is particularly crucial if the Hawks are still in the hunt. In 2006-07, the Hawks went 2-8-2, including 1-5-2 at home and 2-7-2 against Western conference foes, in the month of January, crushing any playoff hopes after a solid 8-8 in the month of December.

Last season totals by month:

The Hawks were only one game under .500 heading into January. In the last five seasons only four teams have made the playoffs after being below .500 on Dec. 31st.

Looking ahead to the 2007-08 season here's the breakdown:

• October: 12 games (7 home, 6 vs. conference opponents), (5 road, 3 vs. conference opponents)
• November: 13 games (6 home, 5 vs. conference opponents), (7 road, 7 vs. conference opponents)
• December: 12 games (9 home, 7 vs. conference opponents), (3 road, 1 vs. conference opponent)
• January: 14 games (5 home, 5 vs. conference opponents), (9 road, 8 vs. conference opponents)
• February: 13 games (3 home, 3 vs. conference opponents), (10 road, 10 vs. conference opponents)
• March: 15 games (9 home, 7 vs. conference opponents), (6 road, 6 vs. conference opponents)
• April: 3 games (2 home, 2 vs. conference opponents), (1 road, 1 vs. conference opponents)

The value of winning at home and prior to that Dec. 31st date could be a springboard to a successful season. The old axiom: "play .500 on the road and at least 10 points better than .500 at home" should be the minimum target for the upcoming season.

The Hawks have two back-to-back games in the month of October and if they can earn 14 points out of the possible 24 that would be a good start. The month of November brings three back-to-back games and a possible 26 points (I'd consider 14 points a solid effort). December has another 24 possible points, but with a four game home stand against non-divisional, conference foes, an 15 point effort would not only show that the Hawks are serious about a playoff run, but would most likely put the rest of the league on notice: "these are not the same Hawks of the last couple of seasons."

So as of Dec. 31st the Hawks would have 43 points (A year ago at the Dec. 31st point, Ottawa had 43 points en route to a 105 point season). The second half of the season has a potential 90 points on the table. The last few seasons the threshold for being a playoff team has been in the low to mid 90s. Expect a similar number in 2007-08.

The tricky months of January and February carry a lot of road games (19 total). The end of January and through the beginning of February marks the longest road trip all season, seven games straight in opposing cities.

In January, the Hawks must battle hard to get 13 pts. out of a potential 28. The schedule has the Hawks making the annual Canadian triangle trip to Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver in early Feb. and if the playoffs are their destiny, then look for a solid 14-point effort out of a possible 26.

At the close of February the Hawks would be sitting at 70 points with only 18 games left to be played. Still not a playoff contender quite yet, but the month of March will be the month that solidifies a playoff run.

Why March? Well, with nine home games and only four versus playoff teams from last yr. it is essential that the Hawks take charge in March. A playoff caliber team should be capable of 22 points out of 30. Entering the final month of the season, the Hawks would have 92 points and a realistic chance, hopefully, of ending the playoff drought. The month of April brings two games at home (vs. Det/Nsh) and one game on the road to close out the season at Detroit. The final touch on a stellar regular season would see the Hawks take two out of three, especially that last game, and go into the playoffs with 96 points?

A reasonable record expectation would be: 44-29-8 or 13 games better than last season. At home, the Hawks should look towards a 24-17-4, and on the road a 20-12-4 mark. Outlandish? Impossible? Crazy? Perhaps, but history has proven that teams can make dramatic turnarounds in one season, and not just teams led by a certain young phenom named Crosby. The Vancouver Canucks saw a seven win, 13-point increase last season, and they were not alone. Minnesota gained a 10 win, 20-point increase. Even a team that finished out of the playoffs, St. Louis, saw their record increase by 13 wins and 24 points.

Prior to the lockout, several teams achieved double digit increases over their prior season (2002-03 to 2003-04), including: the Calgary Flames with 13 wins and 19 points better, or the San Jose Sharks who had an increase of 15 wins and 31 points.

The recipe for success will be to win at home but also on the road where the Hawks were competitive on most nights but just fell short. They must also improve in 1-goal games where they were seven games under at 17-24. If the young kids and the couple of newcomers mesh early, things could be quite different next season.

All this brings us to one conclusion: save up the money now because here come the playoffs, and here come the Hawks!

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