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Quarter Point Review
Fan Commentary, by cducap1
November 20, 2007
So here we are at the quarter-way point in the season. The Hawks have put up a very respectable 11-8-1 record and have played very well in the majority of games. The reason is fairly clear to me. I believe the play of the forwards is much better due to the infusion of more skill into the lineup. Defensively, the Hawks look similar to what they were last year but the new faces among forwards seem to be paying the greatest dividends. There are still holes on the team but it is easy to see that the holes are not the gaping chasms they once were. Let's look inside the numbers and at individual players to see how things are turning around.
Statistically, the biggest difference between last year and this season is on the power play. The Hawks finished last season as the worst PP team in the league with a dismal 11.8% conversion rate. By contrast, this season the Hawks are currently 5th in the league with a very good 22.2%. This is made even more impressive when we consider the team is without their best forward from last year, Martin Havlat.
On the penalty kill, the Hawks are 15th in the league at 82.3% penalties killed vs. 82.6% killed in '06-'07. While this puts them right in the middle of the pack at 15th in the league (same as last season), there are some signs of improvement on the PK. The Hawks are currently first in shorthanded goals with a whopping 8 in only 20 games and are first in the league in penalty killing on the road at 94.4%. Even to the casual observer, they have appeared more aggressive in killing penalties and it has translated to shorthanded scoring chances in many games this year.
The one category where the defense looks better than the forwards is in shots per game. The Hawks are strangely at the exact same number of shots for and against ratio for the year at 27.4 shots per game. While this places them at 8th in the league in shots against, it is only 18th in the league in shots for. It seems clear that they have to find a way to put more shots on the opposing goalie. Hopefully, this stat will get a shot in the arm when Havlat returns this week.
One more interesting stat about the Hawks concerns their play in the third period. They have the second most goals in the league at 27 in that period but have also given up the fifth most goals in the third at 23. This seems to indicate that they need to tighten up a bit defensively late in the game. I would point out, however, that there have been many games where the Hawks have had to come from behind and have done so in the third. When we look at this stat in that light, it seems understandable that this period has been more open so far this season.
When we consider individual players, two names stand out statistically and subjectively to me. Pat Kane and Pat Sharp.
Kane ranks high among Hawks in many categories, including some that are seldom noticed. He leads the team in points with 22 and assists with 15. He is second in shifts skated and first in ice time per game among forwards. He is in a three-way tie for second with 3 power play goals and is second in shots taken. This all becomes more noteworthy when we consider that he is only 18 years old (turning 19 later this week). Aside from the raw statistics, there is also a sheer dynamism to Kane. He creates time and space when he has the puck. He finds passing lanes that the other Hawk players simply can't. He is made better by his creativity because he makes the players around him better.
I once saw a Gretzky interview where the interviewer asked him how he was able to "slow the game down". Gretzky said (I am paraphrasing):"In my mind, a good pass, leading to an assist is worth two goals". He went on to explain that he meant that if he was able to find open teammates, then it made opposing defenders back off of him a bit. That opens room and that creates space, which means time, which means more offense as a team. I think of that when I watch Kane on the half boards. He circles back with the puck to create space and always sees the open guy. It's a rare ability to do that and is why I am so high on Kane's offensive game above anyone else's on the Hawks.
Patrick Sharp might be the 1/4 way point MVP if such a thing existed. He leads the team in goals, shorthanded goals, game winning goals and shooting percentage. He is also able to play on any line and any forward position and play there effectively. He is just really good in all situations. He plays well on the power play but is a standout on the penalty kill. He is also second on the team in face-off percentage.
Sharp has really turned his game up from last season. He is carving out a niche as one of the top utility players in the NHL. In fact, I would not be surprised if Sharp gets serious consideration for a Selke nomination at the end of the season if he can keep his play at its current level.
I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention the play of a few other forwards. The Hawks wouldn't be where they are currently with out the play of Jonathan Toews, Robert Lang and Jason Williams. All three have played well and have been go-to players in this young season.
Of the three, Toews might be the one who deserves special mention due to his young age. He is tied for fourth in scoring and 3rd in power play goals despite missing two games due to injury. He is also third in shots taken and second in ice time per game among forwards.
I am high on Toews but in a much different way than Kane. I see Toews as more of a technician and Kane as more of a wild colt playing on instinct. Toews has great offensive ability, of course. He is an excellent stick-handler and has a ridiculously accurate shot. He also has this natural leadership ability which comes out during games. He waves teammates into position and isn't afraid to go up and talk to veterans between shifts. You always see him talking to Ruutu and Kane on the bench and motioning with his hands what they are seeing on the ice. He's a smart player who takes pride in playing a complete game and always seems to want to improve from shift to shift. When people mention him as a future captain, it seems like a no-brainer to me.
I am not going to go great into detail about the defense or goaltending as both seem very similar to last year (to me at least). The most noteworthy things I have seen defensively have been the addition through subtraction by removing Cullimore and the emergence of James Wisniewski as an offensive threat. It still appears that there is no #1 defenseman on the Hawks and I would argue that there really isn't a #2 guy either. There instead seem to be a bunch of guys best suited for #3 or #4 duty, being used situationally to mask their defensive holes. In short, they aren't bad but they aren't good and the statistics reflect that. They would be well-served by adding a true power play quarterback and a shut down defenseman if any become available.
All in all, I think Hawk fans have to be fairly pleased with the team as it is. There are a lot of reasons for optimism particularly when we remember that this is a very young team whose best days are ahead of them. It will be interesting to see what happens as the season goes on and if the Hawks make moves at the deadline. It seems that they have a team capable of making the playoffs but still have gaps to be addressed. Here is where a GM earns his money or hangs himself. It will be interesting to see how Tallon does as the season progresses and trade talks heat up.
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