My prediction for the Hawks is likely to be similar to many others'. I think you'll see a fair bump in points and a well-deserved playoff spot at the end of the season. I'll make my case and give some specific predictions below.
A few notes first. I am going to go out on a limb on a few of the specifics. I could very well be wrong on some but I think if you are going to do something like this, it makes no sense to half-ass it. Have a pair and go on record.
I'll start off by pointing out a few things I believe. These have bearing on my end numbers. These may be the most controversial of the things I say in this write-up.
Barker will not get much playing time and might be traded early. I say this simply because I think he is lazy, poor defensively and has a big cap number. Given the way this defense appears on paper, it just makes no sense to me to have a floater who only seems to care half the time. There are better players to take his spot. I think a more defensive minded player is better suited for this team.
I predict a backslide for both Lang and Havlat. Lang looked really tired and old by the end of last season. I think he is running out of gas. Havlat will, of course, be injured again. I think he is going to try to protect himself rather than try to put up big numbers when he is healthy. He didn't seem to go into traffic last season when he came back.
Toews is going to be injured again. I have him missing about 12 games, which I think is reasonable given his past. He has been injured the past three years. Let's hope it is minor if I am right. I still have him leading the team in goals and second in scoring.
I think both Kontiola and Skille will see significant time. Skille may show that he is better suited to play in a third line grinder role, with modest production. Kontiola, I believe, will be the second line center by the end of the season and will be impressive in the time he gets.
This team isn't complete as of this writing (Sep 1st). I think Khabby will be moved and another winger will be added by the time the season starts. Obviously, I can't include stats for this unknown player.
I see Buff being the breakout player on this team. I have him down for 29 goals playing on the second line. It is possible that Ladd may take this spot on the second line. In that case, he might be the one who breaks out. I have my money on Buff at this point.
I see Sopel having a higher point total because I think he'll be playing with Campbell.
I think Huet will play very well down the stretch and will steal a few games that Khabby wouldn't.
Here are the specific numbers I have for individual players:
Name
Games Played
Goals + Assists = Points
Kane
82
25+65=90
Toews
70
33+40=73
Campbell
80
19+45=64
Sharp
82
32+31=63
Byfuglien
80
29+21=50
Lang
60
20+20=40
Ladd
70
19+18=37
Keith
82
12+19=31
Havlat
40
13+17=30
Seabrook
82
10+19=29
Bolland
72
8+21=29
Sopel
65
5+15=20
Skille
65
8+12=20
Kontiola
21
2+17=19
Wiz
35
4+12=16
Obviously, this type of production would translate into a bigger point total for the team. I think some of these numbers are due to a better power play. Combine this with a penalty kill, which I feel will be at least as good as before and I think a fair bump in the standings is reasonable to expect. This is how I see it...
Det 120 Pts.
SJS 107 Pts.
Cgy 100 Pts.
Dal 99 Pts.
Ana 95 Pts.
Chi 94 Pts.
Edm 92 Pts.
Phx 90 Pts.
This would have the Hawks playing Calgary in the first round. I think this would be an awful match-up for the Hawks. In a seven game series, I just don't see the Hawks beating a team with such a huge, skilled defense, more size up front and better depth at center. I also feel Kiprusoff is better than Huet so they have the edge in goaltending as well.
Final Prediction: Hawks finish 6th in the West with 94 points and are knocked out in the first round by the Flames.
Feel free to criticize any of the above. For those who don't do their own write-up, I'll save your comments for the end of the year. Fair enough right?
